WI Lord Halifax is appointed PM in 1940?

By 1940 Chamberlain's mishandling of the peace and his equally reckless handling of what is usually called thw Phoney War led to his departure from 10 Downing Street. Halifax was a relatively popular candidate for the post of Prime Minister, but hurriedly ruled himself out, arguing that he would not be able to direct the war from the House of Lords. Despite his reputation as an appeaser, once war broke out Halifax was opposed to any unofficial dealings with Germany, even with thw German Resistanse, with a view to negotiating an end to the war. His desire for peace was overrriden by his distrust of Hitler, so that he was largely immune to peace offers of any kind from Germany.
WI Lord Halifax was appointed PM instead of Winston Churchill in 1940? How is this altering History? Any thoughts?
 
AFAIK, Lord Halifax was an advocate of making peace with Germany as long as the British Empire was preserved. This would stop war in the Western Front really soon, and Nazi Germany would be able to concentrate completely in the Soviet Union, which could end in total victory for the Germans or in a possible stalemate if the Soviet Union is lucky enough. The only way in which the SU could win would be with the Americans making a Lend-Lease treaty in exchange of help in the war against Japan, or maybe even bases and/or territories in Kamchakta and the lands near the Bering Strait.

If Japan is still into the Axis, they could very well demand at least a part of British colonies in East Asia, which could either lead to other war or could be accepted by Britain.

I could be perfectly wrong, of course...
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
The only way in which the SU could win would be with the Americans making a Lend-Lease treaty in exchange of help in the war against Japan

SU? What does Syracuse University have to do with anything? You must be talking about the USSR. But I digress...

If Lord Halifax had become Prime Minister, I am not convinced that he would have made peace with Germany, though he might have don so. Either way, it's not good for the UK, because Churchill was an entirely unique individual who was the ideal warlord for the moment. I cannot imagine Halifax emerging as the leader which Churchill was and I cannot imagine Halifax havign the ability to rally the British people the way Churchill did.
 
Halifax was actually working to rearm Britain and abandoned appeasement well before Chamberlain. I doubt he would have negotiated peace with the Germans, although I think the British would've been even more conservative in regards to grand strategy-I can see Halifax delegating a great deal of the decisions to the General Staff, as the reason he turned down the position wasn't because of his spot in the House of Lords, but rather because (despite service in WW1) he felt he wasn't up enough on matters military.

I imagine there'd be MUCH LESS support for the Soviets in Britain, and to be honest post-war relations between the US and UK and the Soviets on the other would be much worse than OTL. Halifax hated the Commies.
 
Well, if you take notice of historian John Lukacs, "Five Days in London" etc., if Halifax had beem appointed PM, it was certain that a peace with Hitler would have been worked out. Even Churchill himself played around with the idea, but Cabinet ultimately decided to fight on simply because of their distrust of Hitler's word.

It was a very close run thing though, and had Halifax been at the helm, and Hitler had offered satisfactory guarantees, my money is on a peace in 1940.

After all, it made a lot of sense. The true nature of the nazis was far from obvious at that time, and there was widespread belief in the British ruling class that Germany could keep Bolshevism out of Europe. A British Empire allied to the Reich...the whale and the elephant...would have been a formidable combination.

Mind you...God help humanity in that scenario.
 
It was a very close run thing though, and had Halifax been at the helm, and Hitler had offered satisfactory guarantees, my money is on a peace in 1940.

After all, it made a lot of sense. The true nature of the nazis was far from obvious at that time, and there was widespread belief in the British ruling class that Germany could keep Bolshevism out of Europe. A British Empire allied to the Reich...the whale and the elephant...would have been a formidable combination.

Mind you...God help humanity in that scenario.

Peace does not equate being allied. Britain would have negotiated for peace in order to prepare for war. There most likely still have been feelers put out to the United States with an eye towards eventually facing Germany together. Some sort of Anglo-American Alliance would have emerged and I think its likely that Hitler would eventually have turned on the British - and you can't quite forget that something will happen in the Far East.
 
... and Hitler had offered satisfactory guarantees, ...

Such as? He wouldn't disarm. He wouldn't withdraw from occupied lands. And his word was worthless. I don't see how any guarantee could have looked satisfying.
Halifax was very willing to grant Germany a position better than the one it was after 1918. He thought Germany would both need and deserve that. He was also well aware that the problem was bridging the gap between such a proposition, and Hitler's insatiable demands.

An armistice might have been worked out. A subsequent renewed falling out would be extremely likely. Think how much time did the Peace of Amiens last.
 
First of all, Halifax would almost certainly have to build a "Crisis Government", which would include Winston Churchill in one way, shape or form. Winston can be counted upon to be hawkish, and distrust of Hitler is obviously a big problem. I think peace would be unlikely.

It's quite possible that a peace deal is fully explored but Halifax is simply unable to trust Germany--or that Halifax essentially demands more than Hitler will accept: A pullout of all of Western Europe, Norway, and Poland. The Last would simply never happen. Furthermore, the sudden introduction of Italy into the war is likely to further complicate diplomatic arrangements.

So, we have a war where Halifax is in charge. Most critically, relations with the United States would probably not be as amenable as OTL, and this could mean Sledgehammer goes forward in 1943 instead of attacking Italy, which could screw the war in Europe somewhat, but would not fundamentally change its outcome with the Soviets in Eastern Europe and the USA in West Germany. Indeed, a 1946 endgame against Germany would probably see the deployment of nuclear weapons against Germany and possibly Italy, if they aren't immediately interested in surrender.

The war would be over, and probably not fought as well, but the Halifax would at least have presided over the victory and a successful outcome. People would wonder whether the Allies could have done better, but a victory is a victory, and Halifax would become a Hero for his efforts to win the war, even though other people could have done a better job.
 
First of all, Halifax would almost certainly have to build a "Crisis Government", which would include Winston Churchill in one way, shape or form. Winston can be counted upon to be hawkish, and distrust of Hitler is obviously a big problem. I think peace would be unlikely.

It's quite possible that a peace deal is fully explored but Halifax is simply unable to trust Germany--or that Halifax essentially demands more than Hitler will accept: A pullout of all of Western Europe, Norway, and Poland. The Last would simply never happen. Furthermore, the sudden introduction of Italy into the war is likely to further complicate diplomatic arrangements.

So, we have a war where Halifax is in charge. Most critically, relations with the United States would probably not be as amenable as OTL, and this could mean Sledgehammer goes forward in 1943 instead of attacking Italy, which could screw the war in Europe somewhat, but would not fundamentally change its outcome with the Soviets in Eastern Europe and the USA in West Germany. Indeed, a 1946 endgame against Germany would probably see the deployment of nuclear weapons against Germany and possibly Italy, if they aren't immediately interested in surrender.

The war would be over, and probably not fought as well, but the Halifax would at least have presided over the victory and a successful outcome. People would wonder whether the Allies could have done better, but a victory is a victory, and Halifax would become a Hero for his efforts to win the war, even though other people could have done a better job.

I'm not sure I agree with this. Churchill has been lauded as the great war leader, but during the war, he was critisised within Parliament due to his leadership. A famous quote I remember, but cannot remember who made it was "The Prime Minister debates like he is fighting, and he fights like he is debating."

Poland and Norway would obviously be sticking points in any peace deal, but could potentially be overcome. This would render a defeat for Britain, but assuming that the Nazis dont make any demands over British territory and do not occupy France or Norway then a deal may have been dooable.

In such a situation you probably see a Communist Germany after a bloody war.

Should the war continue, then I cannot see the war being that different. Germany would still be defeated and the main reason would be the Soviet Union. Halifax would use his skills on foreign affairs to rally as much support in the States and the Commowealth as possible, remember he was foreign secretary so would have experience and as such I disagree with the point re.leverage in America.

The one area where we would be worse off is that the Churchillian speeches would not go into fokelore.
 
I liked the scenario from "Victory of the Luftwaffe", when Churchill was ousted and then went to America to preach against Roosevelt, losing him the elections. Not too plausible, but fun.
 
My guess would be that Lord Halifax would have sued for peace while desperately rearming to rjoin the war in 41-42.
 
My guess would be that Lord Halifax would have sued for peace while desperately rearming to rjoin the war in 41-42.

Agreed, used "peace" to buy time for the Empire to rearm and expand its military, also upgrade the Royal Navy etc with modern equipment.
 
Halifax would almost certainly have asked Hitler (covertly through diplomatic channels) for what sort of terms were on offer; whether there would have been a final peace agreement is very much more debtable. Hitler was certainly very eager to make peace, though.
 

Churchill

Banned
I think with Britain out of the war Turkey and Vichy France would have declared war on the USSR and Moscow would have been taken in 1941.
 

General Zod

Banned
Halifax would almost certainly have asked Hitler (covertly through diplomatic channels) for what sort of terms were on offer; whether there would have been a final peace agreement is very much more debtable. Hitler was certainly very eager to make peace, though.

Well, Hitler's terms will indeed be relatively lenient, in that they won't ask pretty much nothing from British hide: he was deeply regretful to have warred the British Empire, which he regarded as a positive "Aryan" force. He would ask for nothing but British recognition of German war gains and exclusive sphere of influence in Central and Eastern Europe.

So peace terms would include:

recognition of German annexations and suzerainety in Czechia and Poland (expulsion of governments-in-exile).

recognition of Vichy regime as the legitimate government of France (expulsion of De Gaulle and Free France).

recognition of peace treaties between Germany and France, Norway, Belgium, Netherlands.

recognition of German sphere of influence over Finland, Hungary, Bulgaria, Slovakia, and Romania and strict neutrality in any future conflict between Germany and URSS.

Germany and Italy would surely claim an hefty compensation for the "aggression" of Britain and France against Germany, but any price would be paid by defeated France: at the very least, France would have to cede Alsace-Lorraine and Luxemburg to Germany, Savoy, Nice, Corsica, Tunisia, and Djibouti to Italy. Further cessions would be quite possible, such as the rest of Lorraine to Germany, Azure Coast and/or Algeria to Italy, French Flanders to Dietsland. Netherlands and Belgian-French Flanders would be set up as German satellite Dietsland, Wallonia as another German satellite, likewise for Norway. France would be subject to heavy limitations for her Army and Navy, and would keep her Vochy para-fascit government, but military occupation would be lifted.
 
I think with Britain out of the war Turkey and Vichy France would have declared war on the USSR and Moscow would have been taken in 1941.
Thats by no means a certainty.

Whats to stop Britain supplying the Soviets, regardless of any agreement with Germany upon a German declaration of war in the east? Sheer size and weight of numbers made the USSR virtually unbeatable so IMO, as long as Hitler does not act in a sane manner and the Reich is safe in the west, the best hope the Nazis would have would be the Soviets accepting a compromise peace favourable to Berlin. Should this not happen, eventually, Germany gets royally fucked by the Red Army.

I mean, even if the Germans took Moscow, there would still be thousands of miles of unconquered Soviet territory and given the work of the partizans behind the lines, any campaign would turn into a logistical nightmare for the Nazis. Nothing would be certain.
 

Churchill

Banned
Thats by no means a certainty.

Whats to stop Britain supplying the Soviets, regardless of any agreement with Germany upon a German declaration of war in the east? Sheer size and weight of numbers made the USSR virtually unbeatable so IMO, as long as Hitler does not act in a sane manner and the Reich is safe in the west, the best hope the Nazis would have would be the Soviets accepting a compromise peace favourable to Berlin. Should this not happen, eventually, Germany gets royally fucked by the Red Army.

I mean, even if the Germans took Moscow, there would still be thousands of miles of unconquered Soviet territory and given the work of the partizans behind the lines, any campaign would turn into a logistical nightmare for the Nazis. Nothing would be certain.

Around 70 extra divisions would ensure far better progress.
The Turks and French if they come in would be very useful too.
Would expect the Japs to invade by 1942 as well.
By 1943 Stalin would be coming to terms.
 
Around 70 extra divisions would ensure far better progress.
The Turks and French if they come in would be very useful too.
Would expect the Japs to invade by 1942 as well.
By 1943 Stalin would be coming to terms.

Why do the Turks suddenly come in on the fight? I missed that on your last post. I very much suspect that they would remain neutral. As for the French, its debatable. Yes, they would maybe come in and add troops to the war but that does not change the end outcome.

As for the Japanese. They were defeated by the Soviets earlier. Even given a Nazi invasion in the west, they would most likely be very cautious and await something of a Nazi victory in European Russia. In addition to this, China was not an easy campaign.

Besides, you said have Stalin come to terms?

This was a racist war intent on destroying the Communists and Jews from Europe. The only negotiation I think Hitler would have done with no direct threat to Germany and Germany deep inside the USSR would be with a bullet in the back of Stalins head. I doubt Germany would negotiate. As such, Soviet win. Even bigger than OTL.

In reality though, the final outcome would depend on the UK, USA and Japan.
 
Well, Hitler's terms will indeed be relatively lenient, in that they won't ask pretty much nothing from British hide: he was deeply regretful to have warred the British Empire, which he regarded as a positive "Aryan" force. He would ask for nothing but British recognition of German war gains and exclusive sphere of influence in Central and Eastern Europe.

So peace terms would include:

recognition of German annexations and suzerainety in Czechia and Poland (expulsion of governments-in-exile).

recognition of Vichy regime as the legitimate government of France (expulsion of De Gaulle and Free France).

recognition of peace treaties between Germany and France, Norway, Belgium, Netherlands.

recognition of German sphere of influence over Finland, Hungary, Bulgaria, Slovakia, and Romania and strict neutrality in any future conflict between Germany and URSS.

Germany and Italy would surely claim an hefty compensation for the "aggression" of Britain and France against Germany, but any price would be paid by defeated France: ....


Not what Halifax would have swallowed. With these "lenient" terms, the peace talks would never have started for serious. There is a temporary stalemate, and the British, be they right or not, are convinced time is on their side.
 
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