PC: Alt-Congress of Vienna (failure of Prussia)
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With Galicia he would also get Cracow (instead of it being free city) so not exactly a minor gain.
As for Congress Poland, he "paid" by playing a crucial role in defeating Napoleon.
I know that Russia-Prussia was close alliance, that's why I'm trying to come up with an idea to break it. Seems that unsuccesfully.
If they could get Belgium like that, why didn't they try? If I was an Austrian emperor I'd probably take extra land, even when it's hard to defend. It always might be exchanged for something (e.g. Italian/German duchies).
Technically the house of Orange did. In a very convoluted series of territory swaps, Prussia had traded Bayreuth and Ansbach to Bavaria in exchange for Jülich and Berg. Then Prussia had done another swap of the territories that led to them relinquishing the now grand duchy of Berg. Since Murat's removal to Naples, Berg had been held by the heir to the throne of Holland (Lodewijk II). Willem I attempted to push these claims for a land corridor to Nassau at the Congress of Vienna, but the Great Powers were wary of he and Charlotte of Wales' pending nuptials creating a behemoth Anglo-Dutch-Hannoverian polity in the northwest of Europe.
So... My suggestion: simply have Charlotte get her way and get with her Prussian prince (ICR which one it was). While it won't lead to a PU, most of Europe has been terrified of an Anglo-Prussian Union since circa 1700 when William III threatened to disinherit Sophia of Hannover in favour of her daughter, the queen of Prussia, if she didn't stop dicking him around and gave him a straight answer. Austria was terrified of a continued union and threw all its efforts into stopping the English marriages of Friedrich the Great and his sister. So even without a PU they'd still not want Prussia and England to have a hold. Cue Austria probably endorsing George IV's attempts to strengthen Hannover (which couldn't pass to Charlotte) and the Netherlands at the expense of Prussia to prevent.
Because they didn't want to be in the front line of French expansionism, it had been shown for a long time that it was very difficult to defend so they preferred to give it to someone else and bet on France expanding and having conflicts with Prussia (due to the Rhineland being in their hands); when you get a territory the idea isn't to trade it immediately, such an option probably wasn't even considered.
That explains a lot though IMO they should've taken it anyway.
Austrian Netherlands have a long history of trading, and I'm not saying that the exchange would have to happen immediately. For a while Belgium would help paying down the interest on debt, it was really high so extra money would be cool.
Getting a narrow piece of land sticking out of the Russian territory. The Kingdom was definitely a much more attractive option.
Well, he already “paid” that and wanted a maximum ROI. IIRC, he wanted even a greater territory but caved to the pressure from the former allies.
Yep. There was no practical sense for them to break apart because none of other participants was a friend to any of them.
Getting a territory completely disjointed from the rest of Russia did not make any practical sense and in the terms of prestige could not beat the whole kingdom. Of course, the OTL arrangement proved to be an arguable gain for Russia in the long term and a lot can be said about AI’s policies which had been conductive to the whole OTL situation but as it was, by the time of Vienna Russia was the greatest contributor to the victory and AI had to get something impressive both for his self-esteem and for domestic usage. How it would turn in the future, nobody knew.
Not such a big gain to be comparable with the Kingdom and why take anything from the Prussia?
Anyway, in all these schemas what happens to the rest of Poland?
I'm not saying that tsar should take Kingdom or Galicia, I mean he would get both.
He wanted even greater territory as you say and here he would get it.
No one else was friendly? Austria might look like an ally if it proposes such deal.
Sorry, but this deal is indisputable lunacy. Austria's entire overarching goal during the Congress was strategic depth and territorial continuation. Metternich feared Russia and saw Alexander as much of a threat as Napoleon was. This is apparent in the endeavor to appease Napoleon as a countermeasure against Russia before Austria intervened in the Sixth Coalition. Making Russia not only stronger with more territory but also bringing the Russian frontier closer to Vienna would be such a folly that you'd have to make Metternich have some brain aneurysm to make him even contemplate it.
The whole situation with Belgium has already been discussed in your previous thread--there's no need to repeat myself. Westphalia is not going to happen because a majority of the territory was formally Prussian. They are not going to relinquish that territory without compensation elsewhere. On the topic of compensation, it was in the great powers' interest to agree with Prussia's request to restore it to its former status; this has been agreed upon since 1813.
Ok, thanks for honest opinion, but just few things to add.
Galicia was behind mountains and hard to defend. Would bringing the border closer (at the mountains) make it less defendable?
This deal makes Russia stronger but makes Austria extremely strong as well.
It certainly wasn't in Austria's interest to restore Prussia to its former position.
The loss of Eastern Galicia would remove the friendly bulwark of the great Carpathian Wall just as a Prussian acquisition of Saxony would eliminate the glacis provided by the Erzgebirge. Poland, and through her, Russia, would command the passes that debouched into the greater and lesser Hungarian plains, threatening the empire's major cities. The passes themselves were not entirely within the Crown of Saint Stephen.
It makes Russia too strong and Austria extremely weak because now they're obligated to guard the frontier of France whilst having a behemoth of a neighbor right outside their cities.
On the contrary, there were several attempts to reconcile Austro-Prussian relations. It was the initial goal of Metternich & Hardenburg prior to FWIII's intervention.
I wasn't precise - some mountain passes obviously could stay with Austria, just most of Galicia (all the major cities, etc.) would be integrated into Russia. Those key points would become part of Hungary.
As for reconciliation between Austria and Prussia, IMO it's short-sighted strategy. Now it's sure thing with hindsight but I think even then it was easy to predict that conflict over influence in Germany is a matter of time.
I thought we were talking about additions to the OTL territory to match hypothetical Austrian gains, not a replacement. Of course I agree that Danzig does not trump Congress Poland.
It's not the territory, in any case, but the commerce. In the pre-railroad era the commerce of central Poland, especially its grain and timber, had to flow down the Vistula to Danzig or some other port on the Baltic. Galicia, too, was best connected by the Vistula Basin, and the barriers erected by both Russia and Prussia to this trade probably had something to do with its relative decline from being considered one of the richer parts of Poland at the time of the First Partition to becoming "Hungry Galicia" by the mid 19th century.
In OTL also Sweden but it was a small potato. Prussia was friendly to a great degree because AI was expected to defend its interests.
Austria was an ally, which is not always the same as being friendly. 😉
[This is somewhat similar to Nappy-Bernadotte conversation in (1809-10?):
N: You are always too friendly to the Poles and Swedes.
B: But they are the only people who love you.
N: What about the French?
B: They are just admiring your success.
N (laughing): What a head!
]
Anyway, it was against Russia getting the “whole” Poland, on which issue it was siding with GB and France, hence the Kingdom - an abridged version of a desired “Poland”. If you are saying that Austria is ready to give away both Poland and Galicia, this is a very serious change of its position and, honestly, I have no idea how AI would react.
Not an expert
Well, from Prussia's point of view, they weren't exactly the winner in 1815, or at least not to the extent that it may seem now. The Rhineland was a bit of a curse as a territorial gain, since unlike Saxony, it was cut off from the main body of Prussian territories, and permanently exposed to the possibility of a French attack, while the population was initially not very receptive of Prussian administration. To make Prussia smaller than what it was in 1805 - 1806 in terms of population would also be very difficult to achieve if Prussia is part of a victorious coalition and is still around; a necessary requirement would most likely be that Prussia/the Hohenzollern be in a considerably worse negotiating position in 1813. Excluding the scenario of a Napoleonic partition of Prussia (which would be very difficult, since in the case of a Russo-French entente a la Tilsit, Alexander I would most likely still insist on the preservation of a compact Prussian state encompassing the "core areas"), perhaps a start could be that Prussia falls in the same trap Saxony did IOTL, with its king vacillating for too long between neutrality and joining the coalition, followed by an underwhelming/problematic performance of the Prussian army. Perhaps with some luck, this could make the Allies less willing to accept Prussian demands and cast some doubt on the ability of Prussia to deal with the French.
Austria wouldn't really want to take upon herself the burden of directly dealing with the French. Perhaps this could mean that a large part of the Rhineland (the lands west of the Moselle) could be given to the United Netherlands - it would allow for a connection with Nassau and it would further bolster the kingdom as a buffer, with Hessen and Bavaria sharing the lands east of the Moselle. I think Prussia would most likely still get lands in the area covered by the old kingdom of Westphalia, since it would be the only place where they would be able to receive compensation relatively easily, and Metternich and the other Allied representatives would most likely want to see Prussia more actively engaged in the containment of France, if only in a more auxilliary role compared to OTL; perhaps Hannover and Hessen could take some bits there, leaving Prussia with smaller gains.
Austria wouldn't really want to lose Galicia, since it was viewed as important for the defence of Carpathian passes and the Moravian gates from the northeast; furthermore, it would have no need to antagonise Prussia, especially if it was weaker than OTL -a weaker Prussia could mean less opposition to the Ballhaus' German designs and perhaps opportunities for greater cooperation between Vienna and Berlin. I think that this Prussia could secure Poznan, since Austria, France (and perhaps Britain) could be expected to back such claims, and if Russia's position is relatively similar to the OTL one, I guess Prussia wouldn't be able to secure more in that area. So we would probably look at a Prussia without the lands west of the Rhine, and perhaps without a good part of its OTL Westphalian territories.
Well, from Prussia's point of view, they weren't exactly the winner in 1815, or at least not to the extent that it may seem now. The Rhineland was a bit of a curse as a territorial gain, since unlike Saxony, it was cut off from the main body of Prussian territories, and permanently exposed to the possibility of a French attack, while the population was initially not very receptive of Prussian administration. To make Prussia smaller than what it was in 1805 - 1806 in terms of population would also be very difficult to achieve if Prussia is part of a victorious coalition and is still around; a necessary requirement would most likely be that Prussia/the Hohenzollern be in a considerably worse negotiating position in 1813. Excluding the scenario of a Napoleonic partition of Prussia (which would be very difficult, since in the case of a Russo-French entente a la Tilsit, Alexander I would most likely still insist on the preservation of a compact Prussian state encompassing the "core areas"), perhaps a start could be that Prussia falls in the same trap Saxony did IOTL, with its king vacillating for too long between neutrality and joining the coalition, followed by an underwhelming/problematic performance of the Prussian army. Perhaps with some luck, this could make the Allies less willing to accept Prussian demands and cast some doubt on the ability of Prussia to deal with the French.
Austria wouldn't really want to take upon herself the burden of directly dealing with the French. Perhaps this could mean that a large part of the Rhineland (the lands west of the Moselle) could be given to the United Netherlands - it would allow for a connection with Nassau and it would further bolster the kingdom as a buffer, with Hessen and Bavaria sharing the lands east of the Moselle. I think Prussia would most likely still get lands in the area covered by the old kingdom of Westphalia, since it would be the only place where they would be able to receive compensation relatively easily, and Metternich and the other Allied representatives would most likely want to see Prussia more actively engaged in the containment of France, if only in a more auxilliary role compared to OTL; perhaps Hannover and Hessen could take some bits there, leaving Prussia with smaller gains.
Austria wouldn't really want to lose Galicia, since it was viewed as important for the defence of Carpathian passes and the Moravian gates from the northeast; furthermore, it would have no need to antagonise Prussia, especially if it was weaker than OTL -a weaker Prussia could mean less opposition to the Ballhaus' German designs and perhaps opportunities for greater cooperation between Vienna and Berlin. I think that this Prussia could secure Poznan, since Austria, France (and perhaps Britain) could be expected to back such claims, and if Russia's position is relatively similar to the OTL one, I guess Prussia wouldn't be able to secure more in that area. So we would probably look at a Prussia without the lands west of the Rhine, and perhaps without a good part of its OTL Westphalian territories.
This is just shifting the goalpost. Aside from that, this does not solve the problem at hand. A westward Russian advance into Europe was to be feared as much as the earlier eastward expansion by France; Russian arms should be checked at the Galician frontier because of strategic depth, or else they would be posted threateningly along the northern frontier of the Austrian Empire. It's also possible to bypass the Carpathian passes through Moravia--which is far more forgiving. Poland is no longer an intermediary state here. Austria also ceding Eastern Galicia would surrender its last stake in the Polish question, turning the contest in East Central Europe entirely to Russia.
I cannot see this happening unless Napoleon is receptive to Hardenburg's initial attempts to collaborate with Napoleon. Even then, Hardenburg is nothing if FWIII intervenes. If Russia is unable to get Prussia to switch over, I don't see the 6th coalition playing out and the war between Napoleon & Russia ends in some sort of white peace.
Yes, it would be a serious change in position made to enpower Austria & Russia while leaving Prussia weaker. Most people here say it's implausible though.
Not every king of Bavaria is Charles Theodore though. Other king might love his country too much to trade it so I'm not convinced.
Ok, I understand all of this but with Belgium/Rhineland/Westphalia Austria might just concentrate on the Reich while Prussia is weaker. Plus Austria would be arguably richer than Russia, and in better position to handle the debt.
On side note, do you think Austria getting Belgium+Luxembourg without giving up anything else is possible if only Austria wants it?