How long can Decolonization be delayed?

As everybody knows, the colonial empires after WW2 were basically doomed. However, as with all bureaucratic operations as large as withdrawing colonial rule from dozens of colonies, things can perhaps be delayed a year or two due to a series of random looking events. Even further, if there's infighting within the independence movements even before the flag of the colonizers are lowered. How much longer could the various empires hold on to their colonies in this manner in its absolute maximum?

To be clear, this is not that independence can be stopped, but simply that the process of decoloniztion drags on..
 
Remove WW2 and you've already delayed decolonization by several decades.

You may delay decolonisation with many years but hardly several decades. It is just myth that WW2 solely caused decolonisation. It just was going to happen no matter what. Colonies didn't really want to be colonies and these were mostly useless money holes for Europeans. It could last longer and some colonies can be hold even after WW2 but great majority would are still decolonies by 1980's.
 
You may delay decolonisation with many years but hardly several decades. It is just myth that WW2 solely caused decolonisation. It just was going to happen no matter what. Colonies didn't really want to be colonies and these were mostly useless money holes for Europeans. It could last longer and some colonies can be hold even after WW2 but great majority would are still decolonies by 1980's.
1950's and 1980's is several decades IMO
 
Maybe a few decades, but absence of wars doesn’t imply much
IOTL, Portugal did just about everything to keep its colonies, but in the end, the financial, military, diplomatic and domestic political cost proved to be too much. They lasted until the mid-1970s, so with a post-WW2 POD, that might be the outer limit.
 
Remove WW2 and you've already delayed decolonization by several decades.
Especially as a forgotten aspect of the decolonization process was that both superpowers in the United States and the Soviet Union, even if they did not live up to it in practice, were formally committed to decolonization in their rhetoric.
 
As everybody knows, the colonial empires after WW2 were basically doomed. However, as with all bureaucratic operations as large as withdrawing colonial rule from dozens of colonies, things can perhaps be delayed a year or two due to a series of random looking events. Even further, if there's infighting within the independence movements even before the flag of the colonizers are lowered. How much longer could the various empires hold on to their colonies in this manner in its absolute maximum?

To be clear, this is not that independence can be stopped, but simply that the process of decoloniztion drags on..
Money

Many colonies were a net drain on the mother countries so in order for them to not 'divest' themselves as early as they did there has to be something in it for the 'mother country'.

So if a scenario can be presented on a case by case basis to make it worth their while then you could probably extend some colonisations by a decade or 2.

India for example - one of the main drivers of the granting of independence (which was already forging ahead after ww2) was the presence of the worlds largest all volunteer army that the British could no longer by 1947 be confident that they could control.

For example when the Indian national Army 'traitors' at the Red Fort were tried for joining the axis, during trials in 1945-1947 the Indian leaders in the Indian Army (who would have been the main opposition fighting the INA) said 'Nope!' and the British went 'Okaaaayyyy then Nope it is' and none of the trials were carried out or resulted in massively commuted.
 
For the British, India is the key. Arguably WW2 delayed self government but without the trauma of WW2 and the perception that a strong India was a better geopolitical ally for UK, India may be more balkanised. Either way if India gains self rule in the early 1940's, even if it is similar to the process that occurred in Australia and Canada where the separate provinces took time to coalesce in to a unitary government, then the decolonisation glidepath will have started.

So I'd argue it's likely to start a few years earlier but be a slower process overall without WW2. Especially if USA influence is diminished.
 
It really depends on several factors. Firstly how "strong" the colonial power is economically and militarily and how repressive they are willing to be in repressing revolts. On the even of the first World War, most of the colonial powers were increasingly democratising and public opinion might become wary of a long drawn out conflict. But it is possible that one or more of the colonial powers becomes an authoritarian dictatorship and is willing to mercilessly suppress opposition.

Before World War I there were notable revolts against imperial rule, among them being the Indian Mutiny in 1857. The Boer War was interesting because it aroused sympathy, particularly in the Netherlands and Germany for the Boers. There was also sympathy for the Cubans in the Cuban War of Independence from 1895 to 1898 in the United States. However, before World War I there and even thereafter there seemed to be little sympathy for revolts amongst non-whites or at least non-Christians. So while outrage against supression of the Irish, Boers and even Cubans existed, the Herero people who had revolted against the Germans in Southwest Africa were described in the 1908 Catholic Encyclopedia (published in Ohio) in the following terms "boastful, vain, avaricious, beggarly, given to lying and cheating, dishonest, and cruel and ferocious in their hatred" essentially justifying a genocide. Event King Leopold II's actions in the Congo Free State did not lead to any international sanctions.

During the interwar period, Ghandi's non-violence inspired many as he became a celebrity of sorts in the UK, something that would have certainly not happened in Mussolini's Italy had one of the Senussi leaders attempted a similar policy of passive resistance.
At that time, however, most countries respected the principle of Westphalian sovereignty. Each government was allowed to deal with their subjects as they saw fit, and even Nazi Germany never faced any serious international repercussions until 1939. Often when there was anti-colonial opinion in mother countries it was not so much concerned with the fate of colonial subjects as much as with the financial burden along with the physical burden of providing troops to defend the colonial empire. In France for instance opposition to the Rif War by the Communist Party began in 1925 because of what was perceived as what they they saw as "large masses of French workers and peasants, dragged despite themselves into a dangerous war to support capitalism".

After the war, the atrocities of Nazi Germany made it so that in principle at least the rights of human equality were enrishned in the international order. It was no longer possible to justify perpetual colonial rule on the basis that some races were uncivilised and Britain and Belgium at least began to make plans to develop and prepare their territories for eventual independence. The French and Portuguese planned to integrate their territories into a larger national unit. The French tried this with the French Union though the war in Indochina and the withdrawl from Morocco and Tunisia in 1956 along with the beginning of the Algerian War in 1954 put severe strains on the Union.

The Algerian War of Independence was unique insofar as Algeria had been an integral part of France when the first rebellion occurred in 1954. The FLN was supported by Egypt and later Tunisia and Morocco along with the Soviet bloc. Looking at public opinion in Metropolitan France it is interesting to see how quickly opinion turned from opposing independence to favouring independence for Algeria. In July of 1957, an IFOP poll found only 18% of Metropolitan French inquired supported independence for Algeria, but 53% favoured negotiations with FLN, hoping for a ceasefire. By August of 1958, the number favouring independence jumped to 41% and by February of 1959 to 51%, meaning that in less than two years the the opinion swung wildly. While in May of 1959, a poll found that 71% favoured a ceasefire and talks with the FLN. By that period most French were opposed to increased taxes to pay for a war in Algeria and sending conscripts there to defend the territory.

In Portugal which was a dictatorship, the government was able to resist the "winds of change" for a longer period. However, Portugal was by far the weakest and poorest of the colonial powers and had a metropolitan population smaller than all of the other colonial powers, meaning that it had fewer resources to draw on. In 1961 when the first revolt occurred in Angola it was said that most still supported defending the territory and according to one historian public opinion against the wars only soured beginning in 1966. From the onset, Portugal was faced with a UN arms embargo and except light arms and munitions was unable to manufacture any. It was able to procure arms from West Germany because the latter was not a UN member state and not subject to the sanctions with France often assisting, but these were often inadequate and antiquated. With rebels being supplied by the Soviet Union and its allies, the Portuguese government faced several challenges, with the guerrilla war in Portuguese Guinea being the most costly in men and arms. Importantly, international opinion began to condemn white rule in southern Africa, with the Scandinavian nations being openly hostile to the Portuguese, South Africans and Rhodesians, with the Swedish government calling for international boycotts and arms embargos.

If a regime like that of Fascist Italy managed to survive the war (through neutrality perhaps) the country would enjoyed several benefits lacking in Portugal. Firstly having a large armaments industry, and secondly, a much larger metropolitan population to draw soldiers and settlers. If Arab nationalism takes root, they are likely to cooperate with the French in Algeria and prop up the Egyptian monarchy to stomp out Pan-Arab nationalism. Fascist Italy would likely employ far more draconian repressive measures than the Portuguese could ever have afforded financially or politically. Italian policies in Libya might resemble those of the Soviets in Central Asia or the Chinese in Tibet and Turkestan, meaning that they could have swamped the area with settlers and marginalised the indigenous population. In Ethiopia, there was already resistance to Italian colonial rule, and the Viceroy there was assassinated in 1937. Large-scale repression probably becomes the norm, but the Italians are also likely to stir ethnic rivalries in the territory fomenting rivalries between Tigray and Amhara people and also supporting Oromo separatism along with supporting the Somalis and Eritreans. The Italians after their conquest of Ethiopia had made the Ogaden region part of the Somalia province along with granting the Tigray region to Eritrea.

To say that colonial rule could not last indefinitely is ignoring the the Soviet and Chinese policies towards subjugated peoples. It shows what is possible if a powerful colonial power wants to enforce its rule at all costs by utilising repression and brutality against those willing to rebel against central authority. One could even make the argument that the Israeli government could be extreme example of what a nation state is able to do to enforce its rule over subject peoples.
 
Why the US didn't subsidized or even "inherit" these colonies, to keep them from becoming communist? There were colonies that became unstable and full of communists.

If they did that, is possible to avoid decolonization up until the end of cold war. Or even today, depending of geopolitics.
 
Why the US didn't subsidized or even "inherit" these colonies, to keep them from becoming communist? There were colonies that became unstable and full of communists.

If they did that, is possible to avoid decolonization up until the end of cold war. Or even today, depending of geopolitics.
Too many non white people, probably

Plus, the US had a...mixed...history of keeping countries from going communist IOTL
 
Why the US didn't subsidized or even "inherit" these colonies, to keep them from becoming communist? There were colonies that became unstable and full of communists.

If they did that, is possible to avoid decolonization up until the end of cold war. Or even today, depending of geopolitics.
As colonies started to want to move away from their parent countries the thought was that if the US opposed decolonization the former colonies would move more into the Soviet sphere of influence and into communism as a way to break free from Western (European) influence and sphere.

You could also throw in that trying to take on Africa as colonies would be a HUGE investment in money, material, and men that the US and really anyone else could not pay. Look at Vietnam as an example. France did not have the money or political will to keep. The US tried to "keep" it from going communist and failed. Try this on the entire continent of Africa would be insanity.

Also throw in the fact that the US entered WW2 under the guise of "freeing Europe from the evil Nazi's". How do you sell taking over Africa as colonies when you just fought a war to "free" another part of the world to the American public.

THEN throw in the fact the US would rather spend its limited resources keeping Communism in check from spreading across Europe. If you are spending money and resources in Africa then its money and resources not being spent in Europe.

There are some under currents to consider as well and I'm not sure you could find a primary source on thoughts that the British and French loosing their colonies would in the minds of American leaders at the time cause them to be weaker on the world stage and for the US to become more powerful leaping past into USA Superpowerdom.

Could the US have done more in Africa? Yes but it would have been at the expense of using resources in other place of the world.
 
I think the optimal scenario for this is no World War I, but even still, by the 1980s most former colonies will be independent. No World War II only pushes it back by a decade at most, and probably less than that.
 
In Africa France and Belgium and to a lesser extent the United States thought it would be easier prop up often corrupt pro-western regimes rather than actually govern these countries, they also funded coups and civil wars against pro-Soviet regimes. The British seemed to largely "wash their hands" of Africa and focused more on the Middle East. Conversely, the Soviets and to a lesser extent Maoist China propped up Marxist states in Africa and sought to extend their influence. Some countries which were largely pro-western at the height of the Cold War were Cameroon, Central African Republic, Gabon, Ivory Coast, Liberia, Malawi, Togo, Zaire, and most of these enjoyed lavish foreign aid.
 
You could probably have the European overseas empires last to the present day. OTL the last European empire (the Soviet Union) didn't fall until 1991 (and I'm not commenting on Putin and his actions since he's definitely current politics), so the European overseas empires have a chance of surviving into the 1990s and possibly even the 21st century if the World Wars don't happen.
 
1950's and 1980's is several decades IMO
Crazy you mention the 1950's and 1980's. The way I was told it in (Belgian high school) history class was that halfway the 1950's Belgium recognized it could not keep Congo as a colony forever so they called a commission to study their options and in 1960 the commission concluded that: Yes, indeed. Congo should be an independent nation. Therefore Belgium should move with all deliberate speed to prepare it to stand on its own with the ultimate goal to grant it independence...... In 1980.

Three weeks later the Congolese war of independence started...

And of course, what in my eyes made it especially ironic was that we were a bunch of 17-year olds, only knowing the 'Belgian Congo' as a long ago mythical place. And we were literally thought this in 1983
 
Crazy you mention the 1950's and 1980's. The way I was told it in (Belgian high school) history class was that halfway the 1950's Belgium recognized it could not keep Congo as a colony forever so they called a commission to study their options and in 1960 the commission concluded that: Yes, indeed. Congo should be an independent nation. Therefore Belgium should move with all deliberate speed to prepare it to stand on its own with the ultimate goal to grant it independence...... In 1980.

Three weeks later the Congolese war of independence started...

And of course, what in my eyes made it especially ironic was that we were a bunch of 17-year olds, only knowing the 'Belgian Congo' as a long ago mythical place. And we were literally thought this in 1983

In 1956 a plant to grant independence to the Congo was published by Jef van Bilsen's , it was called Plan de trente ans pour l'émancipation de l'Afrique belge (Thirty Year Plan for the Emancipation of Belgian Congo) with emphasis on preparing the Congo economically and politically for independence. Many of the moderate African leaders were in favour of the plan, but it was denounced by the ABAKO political party began to demand immediate independence. When the first municipal elections were held in three cities in 1957, ABAKO won 133 out of 170 municipal seats in Léopoldville. The turning point came in January of 1959 when rioting led the Belgian government to agree to grant independence to the colony on June 30, 1960. The first parliamentary elections were held on 22 May 1960, with the elections marred by violence and ethnic tensions, ultimately leading to a chaotic independence and the Congo crisis. The Belgian government was unwilling to commit troops to keep the Congo Belgian, particularly after seeing the French experience in Indochina and Algeria and the Dutch experience in Indonesia.
 
Why the US didn't subsidized or even "inherit" these colonies, to keep them from becoming communist? There were colonies that became unstable and full of communists.

If they did that, is possible to avoid decolonization up until the end of cold war. Or even today, depending of geopolitics.
Put simply, the American African foreign policy at the apex of decolonisation, under JFK, was entirely incompetent.
 
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