Keeping the British Liberal Party flag flying high

[Tales Weaver]

I have left Brazil unchanged from OTL.

That means.. oh no. 1964 coup would still be a thing.

 

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Malcolm, Prince of Wales, married Elizabeth Sarah Spencer on 7 June 1978 in St. Paul's Cathedral. (1) The ceremony was watched on television by two hundred million people around the world. There was a three year age difference between them. Malcolm was born on 2 March 1952, and Elizabeth on 19 March 1955. Lady Elizabeth was given the title of Princess of Wales. Their first child, a boy, was born on 18 June 1979, and their second, a girl, on 7 September 1980. They named them William and Emma.

(1) See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lady_Sarah_McCorquodale.

 

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Prince Malcolm and Princess Elizabeth had two more children. Alice born 4 October 1982, and Robert born 12 March 1985.

The Princess Royal, Laura (born 7 December 1955), married Guy David Innes-Ker, 10th Duke of Roxburghe (born 18 November 1954) on 3 May 1978. They had two children, both boys. Edward, born 13 September 1978, and Robert, born 2 April 1980. Laura is an acconplished horsewoman and competed in the 1984 Sunmer Olympics in equestrian events as part of the British team, which one two gold medals. She rode the King's horse. She has also competed in the Badminton Horse Trials.

 

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Princess Eilidh, the second daughter of King Henry and Queen Kirsty (born 9 October 1957), married a Scottish film and theatre actor, Andrew Fletcher, in April 1981. He was 28 years old, born 12 February 1953. They had two children. A boy born 10 August 1982, and a girl born 5 March 1984. They named them Ian and Kate respectively.

 

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On 1 November 1934, the North-West Frontier Province of India with its capital at Peshawar, and five adjacent small princely states, became part of Afghanistan. (1) This followed a plebiscite on 21 and 22 October 1934. So Afghanistan is larger and more prosperous than in OTL.

Mohammad Zahir Shah, was king of Afghanistan from 8 November 1933 until he was deposed on 17 July 1973 in a coup led by his cousin, Mohammad Daoud Khan, which established a military dictatorship. (2) Khan became the first president of Afghanistan. An attempted Communist coup on 27 and 28 April was defeated by armed forces loyal to the Afghan government.

Khan resigned as president on 9 May because of ill health. He died soon after. His successor as president, Sayid Abdullah, and his cabinet, asked Mohammad Zahir Shah to return from exile in Rome. Which he did and he became king for the second time, and restored parliamentary democracy. Abdullah became prime minister.

In 2000 Zahir Shah is king. Afghanistan is a democratic middle income country, and growing in prosperity. There is legal equality of men and women, and women are active in politics and the professions. There are very good relations with the UK, and the UK government gives a substantial amount of aid.

(1) See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:IndianEmpireCeylon1915.jpg. The area marked NWFP and the brown area to the Afghan border.

(2) This was as in OTL.

 

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The Foot and Mouth outbreak in the UK in 2001 was much the same as in OTL. (1) Over six million cows and sheep were slaughtered. Local elections due in May were postponed for a month. The Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food in office during the crisis was Richard Livsey, Liberal MP for Brecon and Radnor and a retired farmer. The Conservatives blamed the Labour/Liberal coalition government for its handling of the crisis. However while opinion polls showed that a majority were dissatisfied with how the Prime Minister, Cherie Scanlan, dealt with the outbreak, they showed that a majority were satisfied with how Livsey dealt with it. The Conservative Party attacked Labour for being urban dominated with little knowledge, sympathy or understanding of the countryside and agriculture. They could not do that to the Liberal Party, as most Liberal MPs represented rural constituencies. Liberal cabinet ministers successfully obtained relief on income tax and national insurance for farms and businesses affected by the outbreak. Scanlan agreed to a full public enquiry into it.

There was a recession in the UK in 2001. The coalition government's policy was to end it by increasing government spending, This meant a large increase in the government's deficit. The Tories attacked this policy as irresponsible and throwing money at the problem. However it was having some success by 2002.

There had to be a general election in the UK no later than 22 April 2002, which was five years after Parliament first met after the general election on 10 April. However because general elections were customarily on a Thursday, in practice the latest date was 18 April. The coalition government had a majority of 21 over all parties when it came into office. By 2002 it had been reduced by losses in by-elections. In January and February 2002 opinion polls were showing a Conservative lead over Labour of 15 to 20 percent.

On 19 March 2002, at a media conference outside 10 Downing Street, Scanlan announced that Parliament would be dissolved on 22 March and a general election held on 18 April. Easter Sunday was 31 March.

(1) See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2001_United_Kingdom_foot-and-mouth_outbreak.

 

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The annual rate of inflation in the UK reached a peak of 12.7% in December 2001. In the previous July, the Labour/Liberal coalition government announced that it would give a cost of living payment of £300 to every single adult, and £200 to every married couple, in the country. The Tories objected to this. They wanted the payments to be given only to pensioners and people in receipt of welfare benefits. Pensions and benefits were increased annually in April by the greater of the increase in prices or in wages. The former were rising at up to 2 per cent higher than the latter. Unemployment reached a peak of 435,000 in January 2002.

81 MPs retired from the House of Commons at the general election. Among them were Shirley Caitlin (Williams in OTL), Culture and Communications Secretary and Labour MP for Streatham, who became Chairwoman of Art Council England, and Richard Livsey, Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food and Liberal MP for Brecon and Radnor. Also Maria Fyfe and John Maxton, Labour MPs for Glasgow Maryhill and Glasgow Cathcart respectively, and Michael Heseltine, Conservative MP for Henley.

 

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Among the promises in the Liberal Party manifesto for the general election were the following. Free long term personal care. Give every citizen an Individual Learning Account which would enable access to post-sixteen education throughout a person's life. Tuition would be free and student loans would be available for maintenance costs. A Liberal government would not introduce university tuition fees. An Owned Second Person Account for people who do not have a company pension, to which the government would contribute. Decommission and not replace nuclear power stations as they reach the end of their safe operating lives. The Conservative and Labour parties would introduce university tuition fees and keep nuclear power.

Replace the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food with a Department of Rural Affairs. Give funds to regenerate local shopping areas. Tackle financial exclusion by promoting community banking and credit unions. (1)

(1) I have taken these policies from my paper copy of the Liberal Democrat manifesto for the OTL UK June 2001 general election, Freedom, Justice, Honesty. I bought it before that election.

 

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Among other promises in the Liberal Party manifesto for the general election were the following. End income tax for low paid workers by abolishing the 10 pence tax band. Publish an environmental assesment for every budget. Establish a Green Tax Commission to make recommendations on reforming the tax system so that increases in environmental taxes will be matched by tax cuts elsewhere. Legislate for a referendum to change the voting system for elections to the House of Commons from First Past The Post to the Additional Member System, as used in elections for the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Senedd. (1)

In a television debate among the three main party leaders, the Liberal leader, Bethan Nash, was asked which party the Liberals would support if there were a hung parliament. She replied that they would enter into negotiations with the other two parties. It would be Liberal MPs and Senators, and the Executive Committee of the National Liberal Federation, who would make the decision as to which party to support in government.

(1) Policies taken from Freedom, Justice, Honesty, the Liberal Democrat manifesto for the OTL June 2001 general election.

 

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The Conservatives promised that if they formed the next government they would reduce the basic rate of income tax by 6 pence in the pound over the lifetime of the next parliament. They would do this by slashing government spending. This was strongly attacked by Labour and the Liberals, who said it would devastate public services. The Tories also pledged that they would privatise electricity, gas, and railways, which were mutualised by the Labour/Liberal coalition government. They would also give parents choice in education by giving them school vouchers to buy school places.

Although Labour was in coalition with the Liberal Party, they would much rather have an overall majority in the House of Commons, so they could govern by themselves. The two parties were both allies and opponents. The Liberals wanted to assert their independence from the other two main parties. They knew that there was no prospect of them becoming the largest party, but they hoped to increase substantially their number of seats in the House of Commons. They were encouraged by an opinion poll published on 11 April, a week before the general election, which showed them in second place 1.2% ahead of Labour. A few subsequent polls also showed them in second place up to 1.5 % ahead of Labour. There was much discussion in the media as to the possibility of the Liberals becoming the second largest party in the House of Commons.

 

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The Conservative manifesto for the general election pledged that a Conservative government would abolish the subcription fee for the British Broadcasting Trust (BBT) This timeline's equivalent of the license fee for the BBC. The BBT would be financed by advertising or by general taxation. This was strongly attacked by the other parties, which claimed that it would result in a reduction in the quality of BBT radio and television programmes.

The average projected percentage vote for each party in the opinion polls published in the daily newspapers in the morning of election day, 18 April 2002 was Conservative - 33.4, Labour - 29.8, Liberal - 28.7, Others - 8.1. If repeated in a general election, the Conservatives would be the largest party in the House of Commons, but not have an overall majority. They would lose seats to Labour and Liberals.

 

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Polling stations were open from 7 am to 10 pm on 18 April 2002. Turnout was reported to be heavy. The election results were broadcast on television on BBT One and ITV, and on BBT radio 1, which is the equivalent of Radio 4 in OTL. Radio 4 corresponds to Radio 1 in OTL. Radios 2 and 3 are similar to OTL. The BBT One programme was hosted by David Dimbleby. There were life declarations from the constituencies of the party leaders, cabinet and shadow cabinetn ministers, and from some other constituencies.

The first result declared was Sunderland South at just past 11 pm. It was held by Labour, with their majority over Liberal reduced from 22.0% to 14.2%. Sunderland North followed 14 minutes later. This was held by Labour, but their majority over Liberal fell from 30.8% to 22.7%. The Scottish seat of Hamilton was next. The Labour majority over SNP was down from 30,1% to 22.2%. The first seven results declared were in safe Labour seats. The first Conservative seat was Birmingham Edgbaston. Their majority over Labour fell from 9.2% to 7.7%.

The first seat to change hands was Torbay, which was a Liberal gain from Conservative, with a majority of 16.8% In the April 1997 general election, the Conservative majority was 0.08% and was at the top of the Liberal target list. The percentage votes for each party were as follows (1997 general election) :
Liberal: 54.5 (45.06)
Conservative: 37.7 (45.14)
Labour: 7.8 (9.80).

Most results declared were in Labour seats. The Chancellor of the Exchequer, Gordon Brown, was re-elected in Kirkcaldy. His majority over SNP was up from 16.8% to 17.6%. The percentage votes were:
Gordon Brown (Labour): 43.1 (39.1)
SNP: 25.5 (22.3)
Conservative: 21.4 (21,5 )
Liberal: 10.0 (17.1).

The Conservatives held Crosby, and Putney. These were two marginal seats which the Liberals hoped to take. In Crosby the Conservative majority fell from 2.4% to 1.7%. In Putney it was down from 3.7% to 2,1%. The Tories were also back in Battersea, with the majority over Labour down from 7.9% to 6.4%. The Liberals held Denbigh, and Southport, and gained Heywood and Royton from Conservative. The percentage votes were;
Liberal: 38.1 (35.2)
Conservative: 35.7 (36.8)
Labour: 26.2 (28.0).

The SNP held Angus South, and Clackmannan and East Stirlingshire, with increased majorities, and gained Western Isles from Labour, with a majority of 8.8%. The Labour majority in 1997 was 8.3%. The percentage votes were:
SNP: 40.2 (32.8)
Labour: 31.4 (41.1)
Conservative; 20,2 (14.4)
Liberal: 8.2 (11.7).

The second result from Birmingham was Northfield. This was disapppointing for the Conservatives because it was near the top of the Conservative target list, but the Labour majority was up from 0.3% to 6.1%. The first recount of the night was Birmingham Hall Green. The Conservatives were defending a majority of 4.6% over Labour,

 

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The first result from Glasgow was for Rutherglen, where the Labour majority over Liberal was up from 24.2% to 26.5%. In Falkirk East the Labour majority over SNP fell from 19.3% to 14.9% , in Greenock and Port Glasgow from 31.6% to 25.2%, and in West Lothian from 8.1% to 3.2%. The Conservatives were doing fairly well in Wales. They reduced the Labour majority in Flintshire East, and Wrexham, and the Liberal majority in Denbigh. Plaid Cymru held Ynys Mon (Anglesey| but their majority over Conservative was down from 13.3% to 5.5%. The percentage votes were:
Plaid Cymru: 34.1 (40.5)
Conservative: 28.6 (27.2)
Labour: 20.1 (18.3)
Liberal: 17.2 (14.0).

The declaration for Liverpool Garston, the constituency of the Prime Minister, Cherie Scanlan, was broadcast live on television and radio. Her husband, Alan, and their two sons and two daughters were at the count. The result was a reduction in the Labour majority over Liberal from 18.7% to 15.3%. The percentage votes were:
Cherie Scanlan (Labour): 47.5 (47.8)
Liberal: 32.2 (29.1)
Conservative: 20.3 (23.1).
Scanlan's numerical vote was up because of an increase in the total vote. In reply to questions in media interviews, she said that it was too early to say definitely how Labour was doing. She would be willing to continue in coalition with the Liberals, if no party won an overall majority in the House of Commons. Earlier in the night, Alan Scanlan had been re-elected as Labour MP for Bootle.

 

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The shadow Scotland Secretary, Michael Forsyth was re-elected in Stirling. The percentage votes for each party were (1997 general election):
Michael Forsyth (Conservative): 35.5 (40.3)
Labour: 29.2 (33.0)
SNP: 19.7 (12.8)
Liberal: 14.5 (13.9)
Green: 1.1 (n/a)
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Conservative majority: 6.3 (7.3)
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The Conservatives also held Faversham, Fife East, and Portsmouth North. Labour were back in Leeds Central, but their majority was down from 33.9% over Conservative to 26.7% over Liberal. The percentage votes were:
Labour: 53.0 (56.1)
Liberal: 26.3 (21.4)
Conservative: 20.6 (22.2).
In Motherwell North and Motherwell South, the Labour majorities over SNP fell from 35.7% to 30.3%, and from 29.3% to 24.4%.

The Liberals kept Birmingham Yardley, Hazel Grove, and Portsmouth South, all with increased majorities. The Conservatives held Gloucestershire South, Kensington, Renfrewshire East, and Wirral South. In Renfrewshire East their majority over Liberal was up from 12.6 % to 14.6%. In Wirral South it was down over Labour from 19.7% to 7.6%.

The first Labour gain from Conservative was Bolton North East, by a majority of 1.4%. The previous Conservative majority was 3.5%, The percentage votes were:
Labour: 40.4 (37.6)
Conservative: 39.0 (41.1)
Liberal: 19.8 (21.3
Green: 0.8 (n/a).
However in Manchester Blackley the Labour majority over Liberal was down from 15.4% to 9.6%. Chris Mullin, Parliamentary Under-Secretary, Department of Housing and Local Government, was back in Newcastle upon Tyne Central. The percentage votes were:
Chris Mullin (Labour): 41.1 (45.2)
Liberal: 30.7 (25.7)
Conservative: 28.2 (29.1)
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Labour majority: 10.4 (16.1)
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In this timeline Mullin was a journalist and reported from Vietnam, and wrote the novel A Very British Coup, and his widely acclaimed political diaries, as in OTL. He was elected Labour MP for Newcastle upon Tyne Central in the June 1986 general election. In OTL he was elected for Sunderland South in 1987. He was on the left wing of the Labour Party. Here is his entry in Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Mullin_(politician).

 

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Neil Kinnock, the Employment Secretary, and Michael Meacher, the Social Welfare Secretary, were back in Monmouthshire West, and Oldham West respectively. Labour also held Bolton South East, Bradford North, Darlington, Nelson and Colne, Newcastle upon Tyne East, Newcastle upon Tyne North, Oldham East, Sheffield Attercliffe, Sheffield Central. Stoke-on-Trent Central, Stoke-on-Trent North, Wallasey, and Wolverhampton North East. Some with increased majorities and others with reduced majorities. In Scotland they held Coatbridge and Airdrie, East Lothian, Falkirk West, Kilmarnock and Loudon, Lanark, Lanarkshire North, and Midlothian. The Conservatives came second in East Lothian, Lanark, and Lanarkshire North. The SNP were in second place in the other four constituencies.

The Liberals gained Stretford from Conservative. Their majority over Labour was 4.7%. In 1997 the Conservative majority over Liberal was 0.4%. The percentage votes were:
Liberal: 39.4 (33.9)
Labour: 34.7 (31.8)
Conservative: 25.9 (34.3).
Liz Lynne, Minister of State Department of Education and Science, was back in Rochdale. The Liberals also held Keighley, Newbury, and Sheffield Hallam.

The Conservatives held Renfrewshire West and Inverclyde. The percentage votes were:
Conservative: 33.6 (32.6)
Labour: 25.7 (28.7)
SNP: 25.3 (20.2)
Liberal: 15.4 (18.5)
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Conservative majority: 7.9 (3.9)
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After 100 results, the state of the parties was Labour - 72, Conservative - 12, Liberal - 12, SNP - 3. Plaid Cymru - 1.

 

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The Conservatives held Basildon and Bury North. In Basildon their majority over Labour was down from 4.6% to 2.3%. It fell from 7.6% to 5.7% over Labour in Bury North. They also held Dumfries with their majority over Labour up from 2.3% to 4.1%. Labour were disappointed that they did not win it. It was on their list of target seats. The percentage votes were:
Conservative: 38.9 (35.8)
Labour: 34.8 (33.0)
Liberal: 14.5 (19.3)
SNP: 11.8 (11.9)

 

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The Conservatives gained Carlisle from Labour by a majority of 3.8%. The previous Labour majority was 9.2%. The percentage votes for each party were (1997 general election):
Conservative: 41.1 (34.7)
Labour: 37.3 (43,9)
Liberal: 21.6 (21.4)
The Conservative victory was attributed to Cumbria having been badly hit by foot and mouth, and Carlisle is in Cumbria. Norman Lamont, the shadow Trade and Industry, is back in Kingston-upon-Thames, as is Norman Tebbitt in Chingford. . The Tories also held Bournemouth Branksome (OTL Bournemouth East), Nuneaton, and Rochester and Chatham.

Labour took Lincoln from Conservative. Their majority was 2.5%, compared to the previous Conservative majority of 5.3%. The percentage votes were:
Labour: 40.0 (36.4)
Conservative: 37.5 (41.7)
Liberal: 22.5 (21.9).
Labour held Aberavon, Birmingham Perry Barr, Blyth Valley, Cardiff South East,
Dundee West, Leicester West, and Manchester Wythenshawe. In Dundee West the Labour majority over SNP was down from 16.7% to 8.3%. The percentage votes were:
Labour: 38.9 (39.3)
SNP: 30.6 (22.6)
Conservative: 19.8 (21.0)
Liberal:10.7 (17.1).

 

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Majorie Mowlam, the Parliamentary Secretary Department of Health, was back in Redcar. Labour also held Bishop Auckland, Dudley East, Glasgow Cathcart, Glasgow Springburn, Rhondda, and Stoke-on-Trent Central. In Rhondda the Labour majority fell from 43.1% over Liberal to 30.9% over Plaid Cymru. The percentage votes were:
Labour: 53.4 (59.5)
Plaid Cymru: 22.5 (14.4)
Liberal: 13.6 (16.3)
Conservative: 10.9 (9.8).

The Liberals gained Halesowen and Stourbridge, and Sutton and Cheam from Conservative, and held Bradford South, and Sheffield Hillsborough. There was a second recount in Birmingham Hall Green.

After 130 results declared, the number of seats won by each party were: Labour - 88, Conservative - 22, Liberal - 16, SNP - 3, Plaid Cymru - 1.

 

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The Conservatives heid Bedford, Ilford North, Stockton South, Swindon, Wirraln West. Wolverhamption South West, and The Wrekin, all with Labour in second place. Bedford, Swindon, and the Wrekin were marginal seats in which there was an increase in the Conservative majority. The declaration of the result for East Dunbartonshire was broadcast life on radio and television from Kirkintilloch Town Hall. The Conservative majority rose from 0.5% over Labour to 4.5% over SNP. The percentage votes were (1997 general election):
Conservative: 29.0 (28.0)
SNP: 26.8 (24.9)
Labour: 24.5 (27.5)
Liberal : 19.7 (19.6).
This was a great disappointment to Labour, as they hoped to win it. The Tories held the safe, or fairly safe, seats of Aldeburgh, Altrincham and Sale, Chelsea, Chelmsford, Knutsford, with the Liberals in second place.

Labour gained Glasgow Govan from SNP. The percentage votes were:
Mohammad Sarwar (Labour): 39.6 (29.6)
SNP: 27.3 (34.5)
Conservative: 19.7 (16.6)
Liberal: 13.4 (19.3)
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Labour majority: 12.3% (SNP majority: 4.9%)
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Labour took Walsall North from Conservative with a majority of 8.8%. The Conservative majority in the 1997 election was 0.9%. The percentage votes were:
Labour: 44.2 (37.1)
Conservative: 35.4 (38.2)
Liberal: 20.4 (24.7)
They held their safe seats of Cardiff West, Clydebank and Milngavie, Dagenham, Glasgow Shettleston, Newport West, Peckham, with Conservatives in second place. In the safe Labour seats of Burnley, Coventry North East, Hartlepool, and Knowsley North, the Liberals were in second place.

The Liberals gained Cheadle from Conservative. The percentage votes were:
Patsy Calton (Liberal): 50.4 (48.3)
Conservative: 47.6 (49.4)
Labour: 2.0 (2.3).

 

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The Liberals held Manchester Withington, Montgomeryshire, Plymouth Devonport, and Pudsey. Their majority in Pudsey fell from 2.5% to 1.3% over Conservative. In Montgomeryshire their majority went up from 24.2% to 24.5% over Conservative. Labour came second in Withington and Devonport, and the Liberal majority increased from 15.6% to 20.5%, and 0.8% to 5.4% respectively. The Liberal MP for Montgomeryshire was not Lempit Opik, the MP for the constituency in OTL, it was Rodney Berman. (1) Opik was the unsuccessful Liberal candidate for Newcastle-upon-Tyne East.

After 160 results had been declared, the number of seats for party were as follows: Labour - 100. Conservative - 35, Liberal - 21, SNP - 3, Plaid Cymru - 1. It was commented on in the results programmes on television and radio, how only eleven seats had changed hands so far.

(1) Here is his entry in Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rodney_Berman.