What if the americans didn't open up Japan, then in the late 1880s, A european empire tried to conquer it.
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twovultures
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European empire probably fails in outright conquest. Japan is in the Eurasian 'disease belt', has a lot of rugged terrain guerillas can retreat to but also has a high population, and rival European empires are probably going to try to sabotage the would be conqueror. As a result, whoever tries to conquer it eventually gives up after their armies are ground into a bloody paste, albeit at an enormous cost in lives and suffering to the Japanese.
Japan then becomes a protectorate of whichever is the main rival of the empire that tried to conquer it-so if it was the French who tried to conquer, they become a British protectorate, etc. and maintain internal autonomy, although they are probably forced to accept unfair trade deals from the 'protector'.
Japan then becomes a protectorate of whichever is the main rival of the empire that tried to conquer it-so if it was the French who tried to conquer, they become a British protectorate, etc. and maintain internal autonomy, although they are probably forced to accept unfair trade deals from the 'protector'.
1: Britain backs the Japanese in exchange for a port concession, Russia eventually settles for peace and gets the same and that's it.
2: They get Russian or French aid and likely settle for a single port since such a war would be an immense drain on their economy.
3: If they're dedicated enough, than they succeed at high cost since Russia wouldn't want that, and possibly not one of France or Germany. Possibly there is a partition with Russia and maybe France, or a system that leaves a remnant Japanese government like the Qajars in Iran (the latter is more likely if Parliament decides the campaign is getting too costly).
4. Britain and France tell them to knock it off and take a port or two as a concession. 1880s Germany doesn't even have a very good fleet yet anyway.
5. Germany and Britain sell the Japanese weapons and probably the French get fought to a standstill and are forced to pull out from all but maybe one island, while Germany and Britain take their own concessions.
1) Russia could conquer Hokkaido, which was largely wilderness inhabited by Ainu, like Sakhalin.
Other powers could get their "Hong Kongs" in Japan
Other powers could get their "Hong Kongs" in Japan
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M... Still the British, thing is Germany and Russia were sort of allies until then. Then Russia and Austria-Hungary began to clash over the Balkans and the German kaiser decided to side with Austria-Hungary and throw Russia into French arms. So prior 1887 Russia and Germany were kind of allies, and after 1887 It was Russia and France.
I was talking to a historian about a timeline I was working on where the first sino-japanese war started in 1890 (instead of 1894), And he told me that in the timeline I was working on ''Since the first sino-japanese war occurs before the Russo-French alliance was forged that changes a lot'' Is he wrong about something? Did you miss something? Am I missing something?
Well, I am an amateur historian far from an expert, and I oversimplified It a lot 😅 Indeed doing a quick research, the French-Russian aliance "was an alliance formed by the agreements of 1891–94", but the French had already being working on improving their relation with Russia at least since the last League of the three emperors concluded... Even so, from 1887 to 1890 there was the Reinsurance Treaty "The treaty provided that both parties would remain neutral if the other became involved in a war with a third great power, with the exception of if Germany attacked France or if Russia attacked Austria-Hungary.".
So at least until Bismarck is fired in March 20, 1890, I think neither France nor Germany would be openly hostile... They might even support It if they can get something in exchange. The British would try to back the japanese, I am unsure about the americans.
The dutch didnt matter anymore in the xix century
Only if Japan remains neutral. Even in 1900 Russian Pacific naval force consisted of few small ships the biggest of which looked like that:
There were seemingly few slightly bigger merchant ships (photo below) but most of the available craft were small bosts.
East China RR leading to Vladivostok, which became town only in 1880, and in 1890 looked like below, was completed only in 1902
So, how the RE would be able to bring a considerable number of troops with the necessary supplies to the Pacific coast, ship them across the sea and maintain a military effort is anything but clear.
The process was going on even without the American “discovery” so the the international agreements were just a matter of time. Below in the first Japanese steam engine built in 1853 by Hisashige Tanaka on the model of a machine installed on the Russian frigate "Pallada" (Putyatin’s mission).
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Were Russia & France any closer in 1892 than they were in 1890 or 1891?
I'm not knowledgeable on Japan during Meiji restoration, but I would assume most powers, barring Britain, would have a tough time conquering the island as a result of Japan's Pacific navy being stronger than theirs.
Also I doubt that the Dutch could really conquer Japan.
if america didn't open up Japan, then the meiji restoration wouldn't have happened
Oh I thought that the Meiji restoration began as a result of Japan seeing China being humiliated by the Great Powers.
I'd imagine that a nation such as the Brits would've done what America would've done.
I wonder if the Japanese warrior ethos was present in Japan even before the M.R.. If that's the case then I could see resistance to the foreign occupiers persist for quite some time unless the emperor declared that he was against that.
Read the setup, this would be a Japan with no modern kit at all let alone a Navy.
Even without contemporary technology, Japan is too far away, too centralized, and too populated for any 19th Century empire to outright conquer. The worst that will happen to Japan is either unequal treaties (similar to China), or unofficial spheres of influence on it.
In 1892 they signed a convention to provide military aid in case of german attack.